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# 226

Bayesian Inference - April 24, 2010
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Bayesian inference sounds cool. I don't imagine anybody knows some good documents on it without too much probability background required.

Probably not.

Its just an application of Bayes Rule. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem

Here is a good intro to Bayes' Theorem.

LOL, I never thought it could be used in that kind of form

While these calculations seem to be correct, I guess the probability will drop drastically if he tells her that he calculated it.

Probably.

Unless she's a math geek and appreciates geek humor.
That would increase his chances dramatically.

unless this joke was made before when she was young by a troop of actors in a play promoting celibacy, which moved her deeply and made her decide to be celibate until marriage. The intervening years broke her resolve, but left her with regrets, which this offhand comment reignited, renewing her decision.
Of course, this assumes they're not married. if they are, looks like it's a night.

"Once a week" is more like 1/7 :-) !

4 weeks in a month ,so 4 times in 30 days.

A month of 30 = 28+2 days (as is assumed in the analysis) has 4+2/7 weeks. So he compliments her eyes (4+2/7) times a month (on average, assuming he randomly selects a day of the week to compliment her eyes).
Then P(B) = (4+2/7)/30= 2/15 + 1/105 = 15/105 = 1/7 as Steve said.

*blink* We refer to Bayesian inference as the multiplication rule in probabilities in core 2 maths. Or is that different? hmm...

See, this is what they should do in math classes, include sex problems, that way all the kids will be listening.

oh dear oh dear... that didn't half cheer me up.

:P

Good stuff! Not all the girls will appreciate it if you can't turn it off, though.

Obviously Bayesian inference does'nt apply to my sex life. I have'nt been laid in a loooooog time. This cartoon is very funny. THX

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